Q3 2026 edition — publishing August 2026

The AI Data Center
Capacity Index

Every quarter, Livio Grid runs first-principles analysis on announced AI data center capacity across US markets. We report what the engineering actually supports — not what the press releases claim.

See the methodologyNotify me when Q3 publishes

What the Index measures

Each market is scored across four dimensions, derived from the same V3 engine that powers individual proposal reviews.

Deliverability gap
Claimed MW vs what first-principles supports given power timing, equipment lead times, and site constraints.
Schedule realism
Announced RFS dates vs the minimum credible timeline from the critical procurement path.
PUE credibility
Claimed PUE vs the physically achievable floor for the stated cooling architecture and climate zone.
Power timing risk
ISO interconnection queue position, utility filing status, and BTM generation lead times by market.

Markets covered in Q3 2026

Eight primary US AI data center markets, scored against announced capacity as of June 2026.

Northern Virginia (NOVA)Dallas–Fort WorthPhoenixChicagoAtlantaHoustonSilicon ValleyColumbus

Methodology

The Capacity Index applies the same first-principles engine used for individual proposal reviews at a market level. No surveys. No vendor interviews. Engineering math applied uniformly across every announced project.

01
Announced project database
We compile every publicly announced AI DC project in each market from press releases, permit filings, utility interconnection queues, and SEC disclosures.
02
First-principles engine run
For each announced project, we run a Livio Grid V3 analysis using public site, climate, and utility data. The engine produces a first-principles estimate of achievable capacity and schedule.
03
Delta extraction
Claim-vs-reality deltas are computed for capacity (MW), schedule (months), PUE, and power availability. Each delta is classified: pass / warning / critical.
04
Market aggregation
Per-project findings aggregate to a market-level deliverability score (0–100) and a total claimed vs deliverable MW table.

Livio Grid does not rely on developer-provided data for its analysis. All inputs are derived from public filings, satellite imagery, permit records, and engineering first principles. Findings represent Livio Grid engineering opinion and are not a guarantee of project outcomes.

Get the Q3 2026 edition

Publish date: August 2026. Free for capacity buyers and their advisors. Includes full market scorecards, per-project delta tables, and the methodology appendix.

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